Actual result
R+7.5
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+2.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.6 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Strategies 360 | D+1.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 59% | 0.166 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.259 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2020-10-26 | 403 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-10-18 | 406 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Tarrance Group | 2020-09-28 | 400 | R+1.0 | 6 |