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Toss-up · 2020 House
New Mexico House
In the 2020 New Mexico House race, Yvette Herrell (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.5
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+2.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | D+1.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 59% | 0.171 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.259 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2020-10-265
Strategies 3602020-10-188
Tarrance Group2020-09-286
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Mexico House race?
Yvette Herrell (R) won, by about 7.5 points (R+7.5).
When was the 2020 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2020.