← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
New Mexico House
In the 2020 New Mexico House race, Yvette Herrell (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.5
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+2.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | D+1.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 59% | 0.171 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.259 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2020-10-265
Strategies 3602020-10-188
Tarrance Group2020-09-286
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Mexico House race?
Yvette Herrell (R) won, by about 7.5 points (R+7.5).
When was the 2020 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.