Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.2
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 58% | 0.334 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 68% | 0.457 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.547 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | 2020-10-20 | 650 | R+2.0 | 1 |