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Toss-up · 2020 House
New York House
In the 2020 New York House race, Sean Patrick Maloney (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+12.6
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+18.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2020-10-085
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New York House race?
Sean Patrick Maloney (D) won, by about 12.6 points (D+12.6).
When was the 2020 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.