Actual result
D+12.6
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+17.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+18.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-10-08 | 400 | D+18.0 | 5 |