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Toss-up · 2020 House
New York House
In the 2020 New York House race, Claudia Tenney (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
EVEN
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+9.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.787 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 97% | 0.941 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2020-10-0110
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New York House race?
Claudia Tenney (R) won, by about 0.0 points (EVEN).
When was the 2020 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2020.