Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+14.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+9.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.8 | 16.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 78% | 0.603 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.787 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2020-10-01 | 383 | D+9.0 | 10 |