← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
New York House
In the 2020 New York House race, John Katko (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+10.2
Final polls said
R+2.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | EVEN | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 12.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.239 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 61% | 0.377 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-314
Siena College2020-10-212
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-176
Public Policy Polling2020-10-134
Siena College2020-09-284
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New York House race?
John Katko (R) won, by about 10.2 points (R+10.2).
When was the 2020 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2020.