← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
New York House
In the 2020 New York House race, John Katko (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.4
Final polls said
R+2.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.239 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 61% | 0.377 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-314
Siena College2020-10-212
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-176
Public Policy Polling2020-10-134
Siena College2020-09-284
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New York House race?
John Katko (R) won, by about 2.4 points (R+2.4).
When was the 2020 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.