Actual result
R+2.4
Final polls said
R+2.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.1
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.1 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 61% | 0.377 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 738 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2020-10-21 | 558 | EVEN | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-17 | 400 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-13 | 789 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2020-09-28 | 414 | D+2.0 | 4 |