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Toss-up · 2020 House
Ohio House
In the 2020 Ohio House race, Steve Chabot (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.2
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+2.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 63% | 0.140 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.155 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-315
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Ohio House race?
Steve Chabot (R) won, by about 7.2 points (R+7.2).
When was the 2020 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.