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Toss-up · 2020 House
Ohio House
In the 2020 Ohio House race, Mike Turner (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+16.7
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+4.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 72% | 0.079 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMiss
Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupGrade C10-172020-10-1713
Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupGrade C09-282020-09-2810
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Ohio House race?
Mike Turner (R) won, by about 16.7 points (R+16.7).
When was the 2020 Ohio House election held?
It was held in November 2020.