Actual result
R+16.7
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.3 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+4.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 72% | 0.079 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-10-17 | 400 | R+4.0 | 13 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-28 | 400 | R+7.0 | 10 |