Actual result
R+13.5
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.7 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-14 | 818 | R+4.0 | 9 |