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Toss-up · 2020 House
Oklahoma House
In the 2020 Oklahoma House race, Stephanie Bice (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
R+0.9
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Amber Integrated | R+4.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | SoonerPoll.com | D+1.8 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.211 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 58% | 0.338 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-314
Amber Integrated2020-10-240
SoonerPoll.com2020-10-176
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates2020-09-270
SoonerPoll.com2020-09-064
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Oklahoma House race?
Stephanie Bice (R) won, by about 4.1 points (R+4.1).
When was the 2020 Oklahoma House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.