Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
R+0.9
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Amber Integrated | R+4.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+2.5 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | SoonerPoll.com | D+1.8 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.211 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 58% | 0.338 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 607 | EVEN | 4 |
| Amber Integrated | 2020-10-24 | 500 | R+4.5 | 0 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2020-10-17 | 943 | D+1.8 | 6 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2020-09-27 | 500 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2020-09-06 | 318 | R+0.6 | 4 |