Actual result
R+13.1
Final polls said
R+5.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+16.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 14.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.132 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-06 | 569 | D+1.0 | 14 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-10-03 | 400 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| American Viewpoint | 2020-09-15 | 400 | R+16.0 | 3 |