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Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+13.1
Final polls said
R+5.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+16.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 14.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 68% | 0.104 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.132 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-0614
Global Strategy Group2020-10-0311
American Viewpoint2020-09-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won, by about 13.1 points (R+13.1).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.