← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+13.1
Final polls said
R+5.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+16.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 14.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 68% | 0.104 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.132 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-0614
Global Strategy Group2020-10-0311
American Viewpoint2020-09-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won, by about 13.1 points (R+13.1).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.