Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
D+3.0
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.7 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+6.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+7.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.216 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2020-10-14 | 400 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| GBAO | 2020-10-01 | 500 | D+6.0 | 13 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2020-09-23 | 401 | D+7.0 | 14 |