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Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Scott Perry (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
D+3.0
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | GBAO | D+6.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+7.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.216 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 50% | 0.248 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tarrance Group2020-10-143
GBAO2020-10-0113
Victoria Research & Consulting2020-09-2314
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Scott Perry (R) won, by about 6.6 points (R+6.6).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.