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Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Scott Perry (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
D+3.0
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | GBAO | D+6.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+7.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.216 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 50% | 0.248 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tarrance Group2020-10-143
GBAO2020-10-0113
Victoria Research & Consulting2020-09-2314
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Scott Perry (R) won, by about 6.6 points (R+6.6).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.