Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+12.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+7.2 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+13.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | D+18.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+18.2 | 14.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | 2020-10-17 | 448 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2020-10-15 | 447 | D+7.2 | 3 |
| DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | 2020-10-07 | 466 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2020-09-23 | 414 | D+13.0 | 9 |