Toss-up · 2020 House

Pennsylvania House

In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Susan Wild (D) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

D+3.7

Final polls said

D+12.6

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+7.2	3.5	✓
2	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+13.0	9.3	✓
3	DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center	D+18.0	14.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 82%	0.031	✓