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Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Susan Wild (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+12.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+7.2 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+13.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center | D+18.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center2020-10-1714
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2020-10-153
DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center2020-10-0714
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2020-09-239
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Susan Wild (D) won, by about 3.7 points (D+3.7).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.