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Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Matt Cartwright (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | co/efficient | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.056 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
co/efficient2020-10-131
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Matt Cartwright (D) won, by about 3.5 points (D+3.5).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.