Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | co/efficient | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.9 | 2.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.056 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 2020-10-13 | 615 | D+5.0 | 1 |