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Toss-up · 2020 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2020 Pennsylvania House race, Matt Cartwright (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | co/efficient | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.056 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
co/efficient2020-10-131
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania House race?
Matt Cartwright (D) won, by about 3.5 points (D+3.5).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.