Actual result
R+1.3
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | R+2.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.3 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | D+13.0 | 14.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.182 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 64% | 0.403 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.520 | ✗ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National | 2020-10-15 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2020-10-06 | 400 | D+13.0 | 14 |