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Toss-up · 2020 House
South Carolina House
In the 2020 South Carolina House race, Nancy Mace (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.3
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | R+2.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+13.0 | 14.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.182 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 64% | 0.404 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.520 | ✗ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Strategic National2020-10-151
GQR2020-10-0614
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 South Carolina House race?
Nancy Mace (R) won, by about 1.3 points (R+1.3).
When was the 2020 South Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.