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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Michael McCaul (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+2.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2020-10-105
GBAO2020-09-235
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Michael McCaul (R) won, by about 7.1 points (R+7.1).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.