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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Michael McCaul (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+2.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.066 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2020-10-105
GBAO2020-09-235
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Michael McCaul (R) won, by about 7.1 points (R+7.1).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.