Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.7 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | GBAO | R+2.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.065 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2020-10-10 | 400 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-23 | 400 | R+2.0 | 5 |