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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Chip Roy (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | R+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.108 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
WPA Intelligence2020-10-112
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Chip Roy (R) won, by about 6.6 points (R+6.6).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.