Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | R+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.4 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.108 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 53% | 0.282 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence | 2020-10-11 | 412 | R+5.0 | 2 |