Actual result
R+6.9
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.8 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | GBAO | D+5.0 | 11.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 58% | 0.177 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.288 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.448 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2020-10-10 | 500 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-26 | 500 | D+3.0 | 10 |