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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Troy E. Nehls (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.9
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+5.0 | 11.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.288 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 56% | 0.312 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.448 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2020-10-1012
GBAO2020-09-2610
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Troy E. Nehls (R) won, by about 6.9 points (R+6.9).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.