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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Van Taylor (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 14.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 77% | 0.051 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-10-2114
Global Strategy Group2020-09-1211
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Van Taylor (R) won, by about 12.2 points (R+12.2).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.