Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 14.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 78% | 0.049 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-10-21 | 432 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-12 | 400 | R+1.0 | 11 |