← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Van Taylor (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 14.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.131 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2020-10-2114
Global Strategy Group2020-09-1211
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Van Taylor (R) won, by about 12.2 points (R+12.2).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.