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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Lizzie Fletcher (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.3
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GS Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.211 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GS Strategy Group2020-10-141
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Lizzie Fletcher (D) won, by about 3.3 points (D+3.3).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.