Actual result
D+3.3
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GS Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.8 | 4.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.211 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS Strategy Group | 2020-10-14 | 400 | D+2.0 | 1 |