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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Lizzie Fletcher (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.3
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GS Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.211 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GS Strategy Group2020-10-141
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Lizzie Fletcher (D) won, by about 3.3 points (D+3.3).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.