Actual result
R+1.0
Final polls said
D+4.5
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+4.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RMG Research | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Lighthouse Research | D+10.5 | 11.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.235 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.441 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 78% | 0.601 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research | 2020-10-14 | 800 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| RMG Research | 2020-09-09 | 800 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Lighthouse Research | 2020-09-06 | 498 | D+10.5 | 12 |