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Toss-up · 2020 House
Utah House
In the 2020 Utah House race, Burgess Owens (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.0
Final polls said
D+4.5
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RMG Research | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lighthouse Research | D+10.5 | 11.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.235 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 67% | 0.442 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 78% | 0.601 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
RMG Research2020-10-140
RMG Research2020-09-095
Lighthouse Research2020-09-0612
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Utah House race?
Burgess Owens (R) won, by about 1.0 points (R+1.0).
When was the 2020 Utah House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.