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Toss-up · 2020 House
Virginia House
In the 2020 Virginia House race, Robert G. "Bob" Good (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 52% | 0.233 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 63% | 0.391 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-10-218
Global Strategy Group2020-10-067
Global Strategy Group2020-09-298
Global Strategy Group2020-09-124
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Virginia House race?
Robert G. "Bob" Good (R) won, by about 5.1 points (R+5.1).
When was the 2020 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.