Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 52% | 0.234 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 63% | 0.391 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-21 | 910 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-10-06 | 400 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-29 | 500 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-12 | 400 | R+1.0 | 4 |