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Toss-up · 2020 House
Virginia House
In the 2020 Virginia House race, Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+10.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | D+10.2 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.167 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Øptimus Analytics2020-11-018
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Virginia House race?
Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won, by about 1.8 points (D+1.8).
When was the 2020 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.