← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
Virginia House
In the 2020 Virginia House race, Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+10.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | D+10.2 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.167 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Øptimus Analytics2020-11-018
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Virginia House race?
Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won, by about 1.8 points (D+1.8).
When was the 2020 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2020.