Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+10.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | D+10.2 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+11.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.167 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Øptimus Analytics | 2020-11-01 | 505 | D+10.2 | 8 |