Actual result
R+13.0
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+2.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | R+2.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 70% | 0.092 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.141 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2020-10-19 | 425 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| GQR | 2020-09-25 | 400 | R+2.0 | 11 |