Actual result
D+20.1
Final polls said
D+26.2
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+22.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | GreatBlue Research | D+25.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+25.1 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | D+30.4 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 367 | D+30.4 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2031 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| GreatBlue Research | 2020-10-14 | 1000 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 3020 | D+26.0 | 6 |