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Toss-up · 2020 President
Florida President
In the 2020 Florida President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+1.6
48 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | R+3.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Wick | R+2.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | D+0.1 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | KFF | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | St. Pete Polls | D+1.1 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | AYTM | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Frederick Polls | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | OnMessage Inc. | R+9.6 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 20 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.7 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 27 | Ipsos | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 28 | RMG Research | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 31 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 32 | Civiqs | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 33 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 34 | Citizen Data | D+4.9 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 35 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 36 | Cherry Communications | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 37 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 38 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 39 | Morning Consult | D+6.1 | 9.5 | ✗ |
| 40 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 41 | Clearview Research | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 42 | Swayable | D+7.5 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 58% | 0.177 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.740 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
88 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group2020-11-020
Trafalgar Group2020-11-011
InsiderAdvantage2020-11-012
AYTM2020-10-315
Change Research2020-10-316
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2020 Florida President election held?
It was held in November 2020.