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Toss-up · 2020 President
Florida President
In the 2020 Florida President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+1.6
48 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | R+3.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Wick | R+2.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | D+0.1 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | KFF | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | St. Pete Polls | D+1.1 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | AYTM | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Frederick Polls | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | OnMessage Inc. | R+9.6 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 20 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.7 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 27 | Ipsos | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 28 | RMG Research | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 31 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 32 | Civiqs | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 33 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 34 | Citizen Data | D+4.9 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 35 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 36 | Cherry Communications | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 37 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 38 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 39 | Morning Consult | D+6.1 | 9.5 | ✗ |
| 40 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 41 | Clearview Research | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 42 | Swayable | D+7.5 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 58% | 0.177 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.740 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
88 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group2020-11-020
Trafalgar Group2020-11-011
InsiderAdvantage2020-11-012
AYTM2020-10-315
Change Research2020-10-316
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2020 Florida President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.