Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+1.6
48 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | R+3.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Wick | R+2.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | AtlasIntel | D+0.1 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | KFF | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | St. Pete Polls | D+1.1 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 15 | AYTM | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | Frederick Polls | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | OnMessage Inc. | R+9.6 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 21 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 27 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.7 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 28 | Ipsos | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | RMG Research | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 31 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 32 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 33 | Civiqs | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 34 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 35 | Citizen Data | D+4.9 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 36 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 37 | Cherry Communications | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 38 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 39 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 40 | Morning Consult | D+6.1 | 9.5 | ✗ |
| 41 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 42 | Clearview Research | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 43 | Swayable | D+7.5 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 57% | 0.184 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.740 | ✗ |
Polls (88)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2020-11-02 | 966 | R+3.8 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-11-01 | 1054 | R+2.1 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-11-01 | 400 | R+1.2 | 2 |
| AYTM | 2020-10-31 | 517 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 806 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-31 | 400 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-30 | 800 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-30 | 1261 | D+7.5 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-30 | 1657 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Frederick Polls | 2020-10-30 | 768 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-29 | 849 | D+5.8 | 9 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1202 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-29 | 670 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-29 | 1451 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-29 | 1200 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-10-29 | 2758 | D+1.1 | 4 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-28 | 786 | D+0.1 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-28 | 1148 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-28 | 941 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2020-10-27 | 1027 | D+3.7 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-27 | 1088 | R+2.7 | 1 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2020-10-27 | 900 | D+0.5 | 4 |
| Wick | 2020-10-27 | 1000 | R+2.9 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-27 | 1587 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-10-26 | 824 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 8792 | EVEN | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 4451 | D+6.1 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-26 | 509 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-26 | 743 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 605 | R+4.2 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-25 | 1324 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-24 | 400 | R+4.5 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-24 | 704 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2020-10-24 | 937 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2020-10-23 | 895 | R+4.1 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-22 | 1228 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-21 | 800 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-10-21 | 2527 | D+1.5 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-21 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 2020-10-21 | 743 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-20 | 800 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-19 | 863 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | D+4.9 | 8 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2020-10-19 | 1431 | R+13.3 | 10 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 547 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-17 | 662 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-17 | 847 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 4685 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2020-10-14 | 863 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-14 | 965 | EVEN | 3 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-13 | 3755 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-12 | 1519 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-12 | 1051 | R+2.3 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-10-11 | 2215 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-11 | 653 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-11 | 690 | D+2.2 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2020-10-10 | 625 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-09 | 981 | D+9.0 | 12 |
| Clearview Research | 2020-10-09 | 550 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2020-10-09 | 644 | D+4.2 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-10-06 | 400 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 14196 | EVEN | 3 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-06 | 800 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-05 | 998 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-03 | 1256 | D+11.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-03 | 678 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-10-03 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2020-10-03 | 3142 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 560 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-30 | 710 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Cherry Communications | 2020-09-26 | 604 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-09-25 | 500 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-24 | 1073 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2020-09-24 | 147 | R+9.6 | 6 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-09-21 | 2906 | D+3.2 | 7 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 702 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-19 | 620 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-18 | 400 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-09-17 | 613 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-17 | 1205 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-13 | 1158 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-13 | 586 | EVEN | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-12 | 428 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2020-09-11 | 631 | R+0.1 | 3 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2020-09-07 | 2689 | D+2.5 | 6 |
| KFF | 2020-09-06 | 1009 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 1144 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 2020-09-03 | 1600 | D+2.0 | 5 |