Toss-up · 2020 President

Georgia President

In the 2020 Georgia President race, Joe Biden (D) won by less than a point.

Actual result

D+0.2

Final polls said

D+0.6

23 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs	D+0.3	0.1	✓
2	YouGov	EVEN	0.2	✗
3	The New York Times/Siena College	EVEN	0.2	✗
4	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+1.0	0.8	✓
5	Emerson College	R+0.6	0.8	✗
6	Data for Progress	D+2.0	1.8	✓
7	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	1.8	✓
8	SurveyMonkey	D+2.0	1.8	✓
9	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+2.0	1.8	✓
10	SurveyUSA	D+2.0	1.8	✓
11	Morning Consult	D+2.4	2.2	✓
12	InsiderAdvantage	R+2.0	2.2	✗
13	AtlasIntel	R+2.2	2.4	✗
14	Wick	R+2.5	2.7	✗
15	GBAO	D+3.0	2.8	✓
16	AYTM	D+4.0	3.8	✓
17	National Research	D+4.0	3.8	✓
18	Citizen Data	D+4.4	4.2	✓
19	Landmark Communications	R+4.1	4.3	✗
20	Trafalgar Group	R+4.3	4.5	✗
21	Civiqs	D+5.0	4.8	✓
22	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+7.0	6.8	✓
23	Quinnipiac University	D+7.0	6.8	✓
24	Swayable	D+9.3	9.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 67%	0.109	✓
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 64%	0.130	✓
4	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
7	The Economist	Dem 58%	0.176	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 58%	0.176	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 53%	0.221	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 67%	0.442	✗
13	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗