Actual result
D+0.2
Final polls said
D+0.6
23 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | D+0.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+0.6 | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | Morning Consult | D+2.4 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | AtlasIntel | R+2.2 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Wick | R+2.5 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | GBAO | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | AYTM | D+4.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 18 | National Research | D+4.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 19 | Citizen Data | D+4.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 20 | Landmark Communications | R+4.1 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 21 | Trafalgar Group | R+4.3 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 22 | Civiqs | D+5.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 23 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 24 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 25 | Swayable | D+9.3 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 66% | 0.434 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (45)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-11-01 | 1041 | R+4.3 | 5 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-11-01 | 500 | R+4.1 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-11-01 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| AYTM | 2020-10-31 | 380 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-30 | 679 | R+2.2 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 749 | R+0.6 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1036 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 438 | D+9.3 | 9 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-10-28 | 750 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Wick | 2020-10-27 | 1000 | R+2.5 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-27 | 661 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 3962 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1743 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-25 | 1041 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-25 | 504 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 373 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-22 | 1090 | EVEN | 0 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-10-21 | 500 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | D+4.4 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-18 | 506 | R+1.4 | 2 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2020-10-18 | 1145 | D+0.3 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-16 | 759 | EVEN | 0 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1672 | EVEN | 0 |
| National Research | 2020-10-14 | 800 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-13 | 1456 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-10-13 | 600 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-10 | 1040 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 677 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-10 | 782 | EVEN | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-08 | 528 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-10-07 | 600 | R+1.8 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 5979 | EVEN | 0 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2020-10-01 | 1106 | R+1.1 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-09-30 | 500 | D+1.7 | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-28 | 969 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-25 | 1125 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-25 | 789 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-24 | 1164 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-19 | 402 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-18 | 523 | EVEN | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 800 | EVEN | 0 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-15 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2020-09-15 | 1150 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |