Toss-up · 2020 President

Iowa President

In the 2020 Iowa President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 8 points.

Actual result

R+8.2

Final polls said

R+0.1

15 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Selzer & Co.	R+7.0	1.2	✓
2	David Binder Research	R+6.0	2.2	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	R+3.0	5.2	✓
4	Data for Progress	R+2.0	6.2	✓
5	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	R+2.0	6.2	✓
6	InsiderAdvantage	R+1.7	6.5	✓
7	Emerson College	R+1.2	7.0	✓
8	Quinnipiac University	R+1.0	7.2	✓
9	Change Research	EVEN	8.2	✗
10	RMG Research	EVEN	8.2	✗
11	YouGov	EVEN	8.2	✗
12	Public Policy Polling	D+1.0	9.2	✗
13	Civiqs	D+1.0	9.2	✗
14	National Research	D+2.0	10.2	✗
15	The New York Times/Siena College	D+3.0	11.2	✗
16	RABA Research	D+4.0	12.2	✗
17	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+5.0	13.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 78%	0.050	✓
2	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 67%	0.109	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 62%	0.144	✓
6	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 56%	0.194	✓
9	The Economist	Rep 55%	0.202	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Rep 55%	0.202	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—