Actual result
R+8.2
Final polls said
R+0.1
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | David Binder Research | R+6.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+3.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.7 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Emerson College | R+1.2 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Change Research | EVEN | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | RMG Research | EVEN | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | YouGov | EVEN | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | Civiqs | D+1.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 15 | National Research | D+2.0 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | RABA Research | D+4.0 | 12.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (28)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-11-01 | 871 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 1084 | EVEN | 8 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-31 | 853 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 604 | R+1.2 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-10-30 | 400 | R+1.7 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 951 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2020-10-28 | 814 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1489 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-25 | 1225 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| RABA Research | 2020-10-23 | 693 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-20 | 435 | D+0.1 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 753 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-10-18 | 400 | D+0.5 | 9 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-18 | 800 | EVEN | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-17 | 501 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| David Binder Research | 2020-10-12 | 200 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-10 | 822 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-08 | 1035 | EVEN | 8 |
| National Research | 2020-10-07 | 800 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 2539 | EVEN | 8 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-05 | 756 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-03 | 1205 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 743 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| RABA Research | 2020-09-25 | 780 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-20 | 402 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-19 | 501 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2020-09-16 | 658 | EVEN | 8 |