Toss-up · 2020 President

Indiana President

In the 2020 Indiana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 16 points.

Actual result

R+16.1

Final polls said

R+10.4

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Change Research	R+14.0	2.1	✓
2	Swayable	R+12.2	3.9	✓
3	Morning Consult	R+11.4	4.7	✓
4	SurveyMonkey	R+10.0	6.1	✓
5	Ragnar Research Partners	R+8.0	8.1	✓
6	SurveyUSA	R+7.0	9.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
2	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
10	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓