Actual result
R+16.1
Final polls said
R+10.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+14.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Swayable | R+12.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | R+11.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+10.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ragnar Research Partners | R+8.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 264 | R+12.2 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1147 | R+11.4 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2729 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 301 | R+10.6 | 5 |
| Ragnar Research Partners | 2020-10-20 | 629 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 685 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 4001 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 1033 | R+14.0 | 2 |