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Toss-up · 2020 President
Indiana President
In the 2020 Indiana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
R+16.1
Final polls said
R+10.4
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+14.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Swayable | R+12.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Morning Consult | R+11.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+10.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ragnar Research Partners | R+8.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Swayable2020-10-294
Morning Consult2020-10-265
SurveyMonkey2020-10-266
Swayable2020-10-255
Ragnar Research Partners2020-10-208
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Indiana President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 16.1 points (R+16.1).
When was the 2020 Indiana President election held?
It was held in November 2020.