Actual result
R+18.6
Final polls said
R+22.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+18.2 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Swayable | R+17.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+22.9 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+24.4 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+26.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Tyson Group | R+6.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 378 | R+17.5 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1556 | R+26.0 | 7 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2020-10-22 | 755 | R+22.9 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 2466 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-05 | 1048 | R+18.2 | 0 |
| The Tyson Group | 2020-09-04 | 600 | R+6.0 | 13 |