Toss-up · 2020 President

Louisiana President

In the 2020 Louisiana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 19 points.

Actual result

R+18.6

Final polls said

R+22.1

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Trafalgar Group	R+18.2	0.4	✓
2	Swayable	R+17.5	1.1	✓
3	University of New Orleans Survey Research Center	R+22.9	4.3	✓
4	SurveyMonkey	R+26.0	7.4	✓
5	The Tyson Group	R+6.0	12.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
9	Race to the WH	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
12	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓