Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
D+9.5
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | D+6.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | D+8.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+8.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Targoz Market Research | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Swayable | D+9.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | Morning Consult | D+9.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | Civiqs | D+10.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Public Policy Polling | D+11.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | David Binder Research | D+11.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 17 | Trafalgar Group | D+3.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 18 | Gravis Marketing | D+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 19 | SurveyMonkey | D+15.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 20 | St. Cloud State University | D+15.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 21 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+16.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1259 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-29 | 770 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 466 | D+9.3 | 2 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2020-10-27 | 1138 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 883 | D+9.3 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 3031 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 649 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-25 | 657 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-24 | 1065 | D+3.2 | 4 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2020-10-20 | 372 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-19 | 840 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-18 | 625 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 864 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-14 | 1021 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| David Binder Research | 2020-10-12 | 200 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 4696 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-03 | 929 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-22 | 500 | D+6.4 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2020-09-22 | 800 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 718 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-09-10 | 615 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-10 | 1087 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-09 | 814 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-08 | 643 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-06 | 553 | D+8.7 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-03 | 877 | D+8.0 | 1 |