Toss-up · 2020 President

Minnesota President

In the 2020 Minnesota President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 7 points.

Actual result

D+7.1

Final polls said

D+9.5

14 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Suffolk University	D+6.4	0.7	✓
2	Data for Progress	D+8.0	0.9	✓
3	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+6.0	1.1	✓
4	Research Co.	D+9.0	1.9	✓
5	Targoz Market Research	D+9.0	1.9	✓
6	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+9.0	1.9	✓
7	YouGov	D+9.0	1.9	✓
8	The New York Times/Siena College	D+9.0	1.9	✓
9	SurveyUSA	D+5.0	2.1	✓
10	Change Research	D+5.0	2.1	✓
11	Swayable	D+9.3	2.2	✓
12	Morning Consult	D+9.3	2.2	✓
13	Civiqs	D+10.0	2.9	✓
14	Public Policy Polling	D+11.0	3.9	✓
15	David Binder Research	D+11.0	3.9	✓
16	Trafalgar Group	D+3.2	3.9	✓
17	Gravis Marketing	D+14.0	6.9	✓
18	SurveyMonkey	D+15.0	7.9	✓
19	St. Cloud State University	D+15.0	7.9	✓
20	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+16.0	8.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
4	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—