Actual result
R+16.6
Final polls said
R+17.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | R+14.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | R+14.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+23.5 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 562 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1461 | R+24.0 | 7 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-25 | 507 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 1442 | R+21.0 | 4 |