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Toss-up · 2020 President
North Carolina President
In the 2020 North Carolina President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
D+1.7
39 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | R+2.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Wick | R+2.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Emerson College | D+0.3 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Morning Consult | D+0.7 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | Ipsos | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Harper Polling | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | InsiderAdvantage | R+4.4 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Frederick Polls | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | KFF | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | D+2.7 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 26 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 27 | Meeting Street Insights | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 28 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 29 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 30 | Suffolk University | D+3.4 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 32 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 33 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+4.1 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 34 | Civiqs | D+5.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 35 | Swayable | D+5.9 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 36 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 37 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 38 | Citizen Data | D+6.5 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 39 | OnMessage Inc. | R+12.4 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 50% | 0.246 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 10 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
78 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Swayable2020-10-307
InsiderAdvantage2020-10-303
Frederick Polls2020-10-303
AtlasIntel2020-10-301
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 1.4 points (R+1.4).
When was the 2020 North Carolina President election held?
It was held in November 2020.