← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 President
North Carolina President
In the 2020 North Carolina President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
D+1.7
39 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | R+2.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Wick | R+2.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Emerson College | D+0.3 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Morning Consult | D+0.7 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | Ipsos | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Harper Polling | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | InsiderAdvantage | R+4.4 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | Change Research | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Frederick Polls | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | KFF | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | D+2.7 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 26 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 27 | Meeting Street Insights | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 28 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 29 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 30 | Suffolk University | D+3.4 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 32 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 33 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+4.1 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 34 | Civiqs | D+5.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 35 | Swayable | D+5.9 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 36 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 37 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 38 | Citizen Data | D+6.5 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 39 | OnMessage Inc. | R+12.4 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 50% | 0.246 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 10 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
78 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Swayable2020-10-307
InsiderAdvantage2020-10-303
Frederick Polls2020-10-303
AtlasIntel2020-10-301
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 1.4 points (R+1.4).
When was the 2020 North Carolina President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.