Toss-up · 2020 President

New Mexico President

In the 2020 New Mexico President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 11 points.

Actual result

D+10.8

Final polls said

D+13.0

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Research & Polling Inc.	D+12.0	1.2	✓
2	GBAO	D+13.0	2.2	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	D+14.0	3.2	✓
4	Public Policy Polling	D+14.0	3.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
4	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
8	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
9	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
10	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓