Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+13.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.5 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+12.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+13.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2020-10-26 | 1180 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1481 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| GBAO | 2020-10-16 | 600 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 2092 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-30 | 886 | D+14.0 | 3 |