Toss-up · 2020 President

Nevada President

In the 2020 Nevada President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+2.4

Final polls said

D+4.5

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	WPA Intelligence	D+2.0	0.4	✓
2	Emerson College	D+1.7	0.7	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	1.4	✓
4	Impact Research	D+4.0	1.6	✓
5	SurveyMonkey	EVEN	2.4	✗
6	Trafalgar Group	R+0.7	3.1	✗
7	Gravis Marketing	D+6.0	3.6	✓
8	The New York Times/Siena College	D+6.0	3.6	✓
9	YouGov	D+6.0	3.6	✓
10	Data for Progress	D+7.0	4.6	✓
11	University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School	D+9.0	6.6	✓
12	Civiqs	D+9.0	6.6	✓
13	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+11.0	8.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
5	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
8	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 63%	0.134	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—