Actual result
D+2.4
Final polls said
D+4.5
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | D+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.7 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Data for Progress | D+7.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | D+9.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Civiqs | D+9.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+11.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 63% | 0.135 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-11-01 | 1024 | R+0.7 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 720 | D+1.7 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1442 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-28 | 1024 | D+2.3 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 688 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2366 | EVEN | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-25 | 809 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 2020-10-20 | 802 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-19 | 712 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2020-10-09 | 512 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-08 | 1036 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 2549 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-04 | 660 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-09-24 | 750 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-09-22 | 810 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-18 | 800 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 2020-09-18 | 641 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-09 | 462 | D+4.0 | 2 |