Toss-up · 2020 President

Ohio President

In the 2020 Ohio President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 8 points.

Actual result

R+8.0

Final polls said

R+2.1

18 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Swayable	R+5.2	2.8	✓
2	Trafalgar Group	R+4.8	3.2	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	R+4.0	4.0	✓
4	SurveyMonkey	R+4.0	4.0	✓
5	AtlasIntel	R+3.9	4.1	✓
6	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+3.0	5.0	✓
7	Wick	R+2.9	5.1	✓
8	Morning Consult	R+2.6	5.4	✓
9	Gravis Marketing	R+2.0	6.0	✓
10	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	R+2.0	6.0	✓
11	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	R+1.6	6.4	✓
12	Citizen Data	R+1.2	6.8	✓
13	Civiqs	R+1.0	7.0	✓
14	OnMessage Inc.	R+0.5	7.5	✓
15	Research Co.	EVEN	8.0	✗
16	YouGov	EVEN	8.0	✗
17	Emerson College	D+0.9	8.9	✗
18	The New York Times/Siena College	D+1.0	9.0	✗
19	Quinnipiac University	D+4.0	12.0	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 79%	0.044	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 58%	0.176	✓
7	The Economist	Rep 56%	0.194	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 55%	0.202	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 55%	0.202	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Race to the WH	Dem 51%	0.260	✗