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Toss-up · 2020 President
Ohio President
In the 2020 Ohio President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+2.1
18 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | R+5.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+4.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | AtlasIntel | R+3.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Wick | R+2.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Morning Consult | R+2.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | R+1.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Citizen Data | R+1.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Civiqs | R+1.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | OnMessage Inc. | R+0.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Research Co. | EVEN | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | YouGov | EVEN | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | Emerson College | D+0.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 19 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 12.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
32 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Civiqs2020-10-317
Rasmussen Reports2020-10-314
Research Co.2020-10-318
Trafalgar Group2020-10-303
Quinnipiac University2020-10-3012
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Ohio President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 8.0 points (R+8.0).
When was the 2020 Ohio President election held?
It was held in November 2020.