Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+2.1
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | R+5.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+4.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | AtlasIntel | R+3.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Wick | R+2.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Morning Consult | R+2.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | R+1.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Citizen Data | R+1.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Civiqs | R+1.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | OnMessage Inc. | R+0.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 16 | Research Co. | EVEN | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | YouGov | EVEN | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 18 | Emerson College | D+0.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 20 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 12.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | 2020-10-31 | 1136 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-31 | 800 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | EVEN | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-30 | 1041 | R+4.8 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-30 | 1440 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 656 | D+0.9 | 9 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 516 | R+5.2 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-29 | 660 | R+3.9 | 4 |
| Wick | 2020-10-27 | 1000 | R+2.9 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 613 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 6025 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 2179 | R+2.6 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-25 | 1186 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 440 | R+11.7 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-10-19 | 1018 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | R+1.2 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-18 | 800 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 2271 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-10 | 1160 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-10 | 586 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 6376 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2020-10-04 | 1009 | R+1.6 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-04 | 661 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-02 | 1035 | R+3.7 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-01 | 1114 | EVEN | 8 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2020-09-30 | 800 | R+0.5 | 8 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-09-22 | 830 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-19 | 1085 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2020-09-15 | 1011 | D+0.6 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-09-13 | 3092 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-13 | 556 | R+3.0 | 5 |