Actual result
D+16.1
Final polls said
D+21.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | D+17.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+19.9 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+20.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | DHM Research | D+12.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Swayable | D+23.2 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 324 | D+23.2 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 3543 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 3909 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-28 | 944 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| DHM Research | 2020-09-05 | 502 | D+12.0 | 4 |