Actual result
R+11.7
Final polls said
R+7.8
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | R+12.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.1 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+10.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+14.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data for Progress | R+9.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | R+7.7 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Starboard Communications | R+7.3 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Morning Consult | R+6.6 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | GBAO | R+5.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Swayable | R+0.9 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Øptimus Analytics | 2020-11-01 | 817 | R+12.4 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 880 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 426 | R+0.9 | 11 |
| Starboard Communications | 2020-10-26 | 800 | R+7.3 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2485 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 904 | R+6.6 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-24 | 1196 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-24 | 763 | R+7.7 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 926 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 605 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-10 | 801 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 3810 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-26 | 800 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 824 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-25 | 1123 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-24 | 1080 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 764 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 969 | R+6.0 | 6 |