Toss-up · 2020 President

South Carolina President

In the 2020 South Carolina President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 12 points.

Actual result

R+11.7

Final polls said

R+7.8

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Øptimus Analytics	R+12.4	0.7	✓
2	YouGov	R+10.0	1.7	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	R+14.0	2.3	✓
4	Data for Progress	R+9.0	2.7	✓
5	The New York Times/Siena College	R+8.0	3.7	✓
6	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	R+7.7	3.9	✓
7	Starboard Communications	R+7.3	4.4	✓
8	Morning Consult	R+6.6	5.1	✓
9	GBAO	R+5.0	6.7	✓
10	Quinnipiac University	R+1.0	10.7	✓
11	Swayable	R+0.9	10.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
6	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓