Toss-up · 2020 President

South Dakota President

In the 2020 South Dakota President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 26 points.

Actual result

R+26.2

Final polls said

R+17.7

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyMonkey	R+27.0	0.8	✓
2	Nielson Brothers Polling	R+15.0	11.2	✓
3	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+11.0	15.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
12	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
13	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 95%	0.003	✓