Actual result
R+26.2
Final polls said
R+17.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+27.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+22.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+15.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 15.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2020-10-26 | 484 | R+15.0 | 11 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 606 | R+27.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2020-10-20 | 625 | R+11.0 | 15 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 817 | R+8.0 | 18 |