Actual result
R+20.5
Final polls said
R+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+12.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | RMG Research | R+12.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Y2 Analytics | R+7.0 | 13.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1586 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-10-19 | 660 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-14 | 1000 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 2239 | R+8.0 | 12 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-09-30 | 1214 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| RMG Research | 2020-09-09 | 1000 | R+18.0 | 2 |