Toss-up · 2020 President

Virginia President

In the 2020 Virginia President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 10 points.

Actual result

D+10.1

Final polls said

D+12.4

8 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Data for Progress	D+11.0	0.9	✓
2	Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research	D+11.0	0.9	✓
3	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	D+11.0	0.9	✓
4	Cygnal	D+9.0	1.1	✓
5	Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership	D+12.0	1.9	✓
6	Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs	D+12.0	1.9	✓
7	Civiqs	D+13.0	2.9	✓
8	Swayable	D+15.0	4.9	✓
9	Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research	D+15.0	4.9	✓
10	SurveyMonkey	D+16.0	5.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
3	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
8	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
9	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓