Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
D+12.4
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+10.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | D+11.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+11.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+11.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cygnal | D+9.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+12.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | D+12.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Civiqs | D+13.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Swayable | D+15.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyMonkey | D+16.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 467 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 690 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 4550 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2020-10-26 | 802 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 351 | D+10.9 | 1 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2020-10-21 | 908 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 2020-10-17 | 709 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2020-10-16 | 908 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-13 | 1231 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Cygnal | 2020-10-10 | 607 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2020-10-06 | 602 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 5912 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2020-09-24 | 600 | D+10.1 | 0 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2020-09-15 | 796 | D+5.0 | 5 |