Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
D+7.4
29 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.4 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | D+1.9 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Civiqs | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marquette University Law School | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Latino Decisions | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | RMG Research | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+6.2 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+6.7 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Emerson College | D+7.3 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Research Co. | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 15 | SSRS | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 16 | OnMessage Inc. | D+8.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 18 | Swayable | D+9.7 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 19 | Ipsos | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 20 | SurveyMonkey | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 21 | David Binder Research | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 22 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 23 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+11.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 24 | Gravis Marketing | D+11.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 25 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+12.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 26 | Morning Consult | D+13.3 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 27 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+17.0 | 16.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (61)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 553 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-31 | 789 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-30 | 781 | D+1.9 | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-30 | 450 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-29 | 696 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 253 | D+9.7 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-29 | 751 | D+7.3 | 7 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-28 | 800 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-28 | 1253 | D+11.0 | 10 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 873 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2814 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1002 | D+13.3 | 13 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 313 | D+8.8 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-24 | 1082 | D+0.4 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-23 | 664 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2020-10-23 | 749 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-23 | 677 | D+11.0 | 10 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-10-22 | 809 | D+17.0 | 16 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-10-19 | 1037 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-18 | 500 | EVEN | 1 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 447 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-17 | 647 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-17 | 800 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-16 | 663 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Latino Decisions | 2020-10-16 | 400 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-15 | 1112 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1038 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-15 | 1051 | D+1.3 | 1 |
| David Binder Research | 2020-10-12 | 200 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-12 | 1043 | D+1.9 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-12 | 691 | D+13.0 | 12 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-10 | 560 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-10 | 789 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-09 | 613 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-08 | 577 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-06 | 688 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 4511 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2020-10-04 | 883 | D+6.7 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 442 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2020-10-02 | 700 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-02 | 601 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-09-27 | 1084 | D+2.9 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-25 | 663 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-09-25 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-09-24 | 1189 | D+2.8 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2020-09-24 | 145 | D+8.3 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2020-09-22 | 727 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 571 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-18 | 400 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-16 | 664 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2020-09-15 | 863 | D+9.3 | 9 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 636 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-13 | 609 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-13 | 704 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-11 | 800 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| SSRS | 2020-09-11 | 816 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-09-10 | 605 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-09 | 760 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-07 | 823 | D+6.7 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 501 | D+6.0 | 5 |