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Toss-up · 2020 President
Wisconsin President
In the 2020 Wisconsin President race, Joe Biden (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
D+7.4
29 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.4 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | D+1.9 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Civiqs | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marquette University Law School | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Latino Decisions | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | RMG Research | D+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+6.7 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+7.3 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Research Co. | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | SSRS | D+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 15 | OnMessage Inc. | D+8.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 17 | Swayable | D+9.7 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 18 | Ipsos | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 19 | SurveyMonkey | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 20 | David Binder Research | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 21 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+11.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 23 | Gravis Marketing | D+11.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 24 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+12.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 25 | Morning Consult | D+13.3 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+17.0 | 16.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
61 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-317
Civiqs2020-10-313
Research Co.2020-10-317
AtlasIntel2020-10-301
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2020-10-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Wisconsin President race?
Joe Biden (D) won, by about 0.6 points (D+0.6).
When was the 2020 Wisconsin President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.