Actual result
R+38.9
Final polls said
R+27.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+33.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+35.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+33.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+20.1 | 18.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Repass | R+14.0 | 24.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 816 | R+35.0 | 4 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2020-10-19 | 544 | R+20.1 | 19 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 1075 | R+34.0 | 5 |
| Repass | 2020-10-03 | 450 | R+14.0 | 25 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2020-09-29 | 525 | R+18.0 | 21 |