Actual result
R+12.7
Final polls said
R+3.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+8.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.5 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | R+4.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+1.0 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+1.0 | 13.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 770 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-19 | 800 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 1076 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2020-10-12 | 606 | D+1.0 | 14 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 423 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2020-10-04 | 600 | EVEN | 13 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-10-02 | 600 | D+1.0 | 14 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2020-09-29 | 676 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2020-09-22 | 602 | R+1.0 | 12 |