Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Alaska Senate

In the 2020 Alaska Senate race, Dan Sullivan (R) won by about 13 points.

Dan Sullivan· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+12.7

Final polls said

R+3.0

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	R+8.0	4.7	✓
2	Alaska Survey Research	R+4.0	8.7	✓
3	Gravis Marketing	R+3.0	9.7	✓
4	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	9.7	✓
5	Change Research	R+3.0	9.7	✓
6	Harstad Strategic Research	D+1.0	13.7	✗
7	Patinkin Research Strategies	D+1.0	13.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
2	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 86%	0.018	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 80%	0.040	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 77%	0.053	✓
7	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	The Economist	Rep 72%	0.078	✓
12	Race to the WH	Rep 70%	0.090	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 67%	0.109	✓