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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Arkansas Senate
In the 2020 Arkansas Senate race, Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (D) won by about 33 points.
Actual result
D+33.1
Final polls said
D+55.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | D+35.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | D+55.0 | 21.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+11.0 | 22.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2020-10-1522
Hendrix College2020-10-122
American Research Group2020-10-0822
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arkansas Senate race?
Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (D) won, by about 33.1 points (D+33.1).
When was the 2020 Arkansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.