Actual result
D+33.1
Final polls said
D+55.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+40.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | D+35.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+40.6 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | D+55.0 | 21.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+11.0 | 22.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 12 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2020-10-15 | 591 | D+55.0 | 22 |
| Hendrix College | 2020-10-12 | 647 | D+35.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2020-10-08 | 600 | D+11.0 | 22 |