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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Georgia Senate
In the 2020 Georgia Senate race, David A. Perdue (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+0.3
19 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Landmark Communications | R+2.1 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | R+1.3 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | R+1.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research | R+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | Open Model Project | R+3.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | VCreek/AMG | R+3.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | Wick | R+4.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.9 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | National Research | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 16 | Morning Consult | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 17 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 18 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 19 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | D+1.1 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 20 | Targoz Market Research | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | RMG Research | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Research | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 23 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 25 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 26 | AtlasIntel | D+4.5 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 27 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 28 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 29 | Civiqs | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 30 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Citizen Data | D+6.9 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 32 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 33 | JMC Analytics | D+8.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.114 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
94 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
InsiderAdvantage2021-01-033
Trafalgar Group2021-01-030
AtlasIntel2021-01-033
InsiderAdvantage2021-01-031
Trafalgar Group2021-01-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Georgia Senate race?
David A. Perdue (R) won, by about 1.8 points (R+1.8).
When was the 2020 Georgia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.