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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Georgia Senate
In the 2020 Georgia Senate race, David A. Perdue (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+0.3
19 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Landmark Communications | R+2.1 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | R+1.3 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | R+1.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research | R+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | Open Model Project | R+3.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | VCreek/AMG | R+3.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | Wick | R+4.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.9 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | National Research | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 16 | Morning Consult | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 17 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 18 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 19 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | D+1.1 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 20 | Targoz Market Research | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | RMG Research | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Research | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 23 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 25 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 26 | AtlasIntel | D+4.5 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 27 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 28 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 29 | Civiqs | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 30 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Citizen Data | D+6.9 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 32 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 33 | JMC Analytics | D+8.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
94 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
InsiderAdvantage2021-01-033
Trafalgar Group2021-01-030
AtlasIntel2021-01-033
InsiderAdvantage2021-01-031
Trafalgar Group2021-01-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Georgia Senate race?
David A. Perdue (R) won, by about 1.8 points (R+1.8).
When was the 2020 Georgia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.