Actual result
D+1.2
Final polls said
D+0.3
19 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | D+1.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | National Research | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Morning Consult | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.9 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Targoz Market Research | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | RMG Research | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Research | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.5 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | R+1.1 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 18 | Swayable | R+1.3 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 21 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 22 | AtlasIntel | D+4.5 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 23 | Landmark Communications | R+2.1 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 24 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 25 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 26 | Civiqs | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 27 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 28 | Open Model Project | R+3.9 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 29 | VCreek/AMG | R+3.9 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 30 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 31 | Wick | R+4.1 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 32 | Citizen Data | D+6.9 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 33 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 34 | JMC Analytics | D+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 60% | 0.361 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (94)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2021-01-03 | 500 | R+0.5 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2021-01-03 | 1056 | D+0.9 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2021-01-03 | 857 | D+4.5 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2021-01-03 | 500 | R+0.1 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2021-01-03 | 1056 | R+1.3 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2021-01-03 | 857 | D+3.9 | 2 |
| National Research | 2021-01-02 | 500 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| National Research | 2021-01-02 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2021-01-01 | 713 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2021-01-01 | 713 | EVEN | 1 |
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 2021-01-01 | 550 | R+1.1 | 2 |
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 2021-01-01 | 550 | R+0.9 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-12-29 | 1680 | D+4.2 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-12-29 | 1680 | D+4.3 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-12-29 | 1011 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-12-29 | 1011 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| JMC Analytics | 2020-12-28 | 500 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| JMC Analytics | 2020-12-28 | 500 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-25 | 1022 | D+2.7 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-25 | 1022 | D+0.8 | 1 |
| Open Model Project | 2020-12-24 | 1405 | R+3.9 | 5 |
| Open Model Project | 2020-12-24 | 1405 | R+4.1 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-12-21 | 500 | R+1.9 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-12-21 | 500 | D+1.2 | 1 |
| Mellman Group | 2020-12-20 | 578 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2020-12-20 | 578 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-12-18 | 600 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research | 2020-12-18 | 1027 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-12-18 | 600 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research | 2020-12-18 | 1027 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-15 | 1064 | R+6.7 | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-15 | 1064 | R+2.7 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2020-12-15 | 605 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-12-15 | 605 | R+2.4 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-12-14 | 500 | R+1.2 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-12-14 | 500 | R+1.2 | 3 |
| Wick | 2020-12-12 | 1500 | R+4.1 | 5 |
| Wick | 2020-12-12 | 1500 | R+2.5 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 2020-12-11 | 1417 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| RMG Research | 2020-12-11 | 1417 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-09 | 1018 | D+0.3 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-09 | 1018 | R+3.1 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-02 | 1083 | R+4.9 | 7 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Research | 2020-12-02 | 1250 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-12-02 | 1083 | D+0.7 | 1 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Research | 2020-12-02 | 1250 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-11-29 | 583 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-11-29 | 583 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 2020-11-21 | 1377 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| RMG Research | 2020-11-21 | 1377 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-11-17 | 1476 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-11-17 | 1476 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-11-16 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-11-16 | 800 | EVEN | 1 |
| VCreek/AMG | 2020-11-10 | 300 | R+3.9 | 6 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-11-08 | 1450 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-11-08 | 1450 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-11-01 | 500 | R+2.1 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 749 | D+1.3 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1036 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 407 | R+1.3 | 0 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-10-28 | 750 | D+0.1 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-27 | 661 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1743 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-25 | 1041 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-25 | 504 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 342 | R+1.6 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-22 | 1090 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-10-21 | 500 | R+5.6 | 4 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | D+6.9 | 9 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2020-10-18 | 1145 | D+1.1 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-18 | 506 | R+1.6 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-16 | 759 | EVEN | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1672 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| National Research | 2020-10-14 | 800 | EVEN | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-10-13 | 600 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-10 | 782 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-10 | 1160 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 677 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-08 | 528 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Landmark Communications | 2020-10-07 | 600 | R+1.5 | 0 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2020-10-01 | 1106 | R+7.5 | 6 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-28 | 969 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-25 | 1125 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-25 | 789 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-24 | 1164 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-19 | 402 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-18 | 523 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 800 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-15 | 600 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2020-09-15 | 1150 | R+2.4 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 1406 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 800 | EVEN | 2 |