Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
D+1.1
14 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | R+5.6 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | R+2.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | National Research | R+1.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | EVEN | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | RMG Research | D+3.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Emerson College | D+3.1 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | RABA Research | D+6.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 59% | 0.169 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-11-01 | 871 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 1084 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-31 | 853 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 604 | D+3.1 | 10 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-10-30 | 400 | R+5.6 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 951 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2020-10-28 | 814 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-25 | 1225 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| RABA Research | 2020-10-23 | 693 | D+6.0 | 13 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-20 | 435 | R+4.1 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 753 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2020-10-18 | 400 | D+4.7 | 11 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-18 | 800 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-17 | 501 | D+6.0 | 13 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-10 | 822 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-08 | 1022 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| National Research | 2020-10-07 | 800 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-05 | 756 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-03 | 1205 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | EVEN | 7 |
| RABA Research | 2020-09-25 | 780 | D+12.0 | 19 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 743 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-20 | 402 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-19 | 501 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2020-09-16 | 658 | D+3.0 | 10 |