Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Iowa Senate

In the 2020 Iowa Senate race, Joni K. Ernst (R) won by about 7 points.

Joni K. Ernst· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+6.6

Final polls said

D+1.1

14 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	InsiderAdvantage	R+5.6	1.0	✓
2	Selzer & Co.	R+4.0	2.6	✓
3	Quinnipiac University	R+2.0	4.6	✓
4	The New York Times/Siena College	R+1.0	5.6	✓
5	National Research	R+1.0	5.6	✓
6	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	EVEN	6.6	✗
7	Public Policy Polling	D+1.0	7.6	✗
8	Change Research	D+1.0	7.6	✗
9	Civiqs	D+3.0	9.6	✗
10	RMG Research	D+3.0	9.6	✗
11	Emerson College	D+3.1	9.7	✗
12	Data for Progress	D+4.0	10.6	✗
13	YouGov	D+4.0	10.6	✗
14	RABA Research	D+6.0	12.6	✗
15	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+6.0	12.6	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 58%	0.176	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 58%	0.179	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 52%	0.230	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
9	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 51%	0.260	✗
11	The Economist	Dem 51%	0.260	✗
12	Race to the WH	Dem 52%	0.270	✗
13	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 72%	0.518	✗