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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Kansas Senate
In the 2020 Kansas Senate race, Roger Marshall (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.4
Final polls said
R+4.1
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | co/efficient | R+12.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | R+7.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data for Progress | R+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | VCreek/AMG | R+3.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 12.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data for Progress2020-10-295
GBAO2020-10-2612
VCreek/AMG2020-10-268
Public Policy Polling2020-10-1911
co/efficient2020-10-191
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Kansas Senate race?
Roger Marshall (R) won, by about 11.4 points (R+11.4).
When was the 2020 Kansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.