Actual result
R+11.4
Final polls said
R+4.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | co/efficient | R+12.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | R+7.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Data for Progress | R+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | VCreek/AMG | R+3.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 12.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1121 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| GBAO | 2020-10-26 | 600 | D+1.0 | 12 |
| VCreek/AMG | 2020-10-26 | 1149 | R+3.6 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-19 | 897 | EVEN | 11 |
| co/efficient | 2020-10-19 | 2453 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 755 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| VCreek/AMG | 2020-09-29 | 3104 | D+3.5 | 15 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-28 | 677 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 883 | EVEN | 11 |
| co/efficient | 2020-09-15 | 794 | R+4.0 | 7 |