Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Kansas Senate

In the 2020 Kansas Senate race, Roger Marshall (R) won by about 11 points.

Roger Marshall· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+11.4

Final polls said

R+4.1

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	co/efficient	R+12.0	0.6	✓
2	Civiqs	R+7.0	4.4	✓
3	Data for Progress	R+6.0	5.4	✓
4	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.0	7.4	✓
5	VCreek/AMG	R+3.6	7.9	✓
6	Public Policy Polling	EVEN	11.4	✗
7	GBAO	D+1.0	12.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Rep 86%	0.020	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 86%	0.020	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
5	The Economist	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 80%	0.040	✓
7	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Race to the WH	Rep 70%	0.090	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 67%	0.109	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
13	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓