Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Michigan Senate

In the 2020 Michigan Senate race, Gary C. Peters (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+1.7

Final polls said

D+7.4

31 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Marketing Resource Group (MRG)	D+2.0	0.3	✓
2	Tarrance Group	D+1.3	0.4	✓
3	YouGov	D+3.0	1.3	✓
4	Citizen Data	D+3.5	1.9	✓
5	Change Research	D+5.0	3.3	✓
6	EPIC-MRA	D+5.0	3.3	✓
7	Data for Progress	D+5.0	3.3	✓
8	Marist College	D+5.0	3.3	✓
9	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+5.4	3.7	✓
10	Trafalgar Group	R+2.2	3.9	✗
11	Morning Consult	D+5.7	4.0	✓
12	Emerson College	D+5.8	4.1	✓
13	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	D+5.9	4.2	✓
14	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+6.0	4.3	✓
15	Ipsos	D+7.0	5.3	✓
16	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+7.0	5.3	✓
17	Swayable	D+7.2	5.5	✓
18	The New York Times/Siena College	D+8.0	6.3	✓
19	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+8.0	6.3	✓
20	National Research	D+8.0	6.3	✓
21	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+8.0	6.3	✓
22	RMG Research	D+9.0	7.3	✓
23	Glengariff Group	D+9.6	7.9	✓
24	Public Policy Polling	D+10.0	8.3	✓
25	Targoz Market Research	D+11.0	9.3	✓
26	Gravis Marketing	D+11.0	9.3	✓
27	SSRS	D+12.0	10.3	✓
28	Kiaer Research	D+12.8	11.1	✓
29	Research Co.	D+15.0	13.3	✓
30	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+16.0	14.3	✓

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
5	Race to the WH	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—