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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Michigan Senate
In the 2020 Michigan Senate race, Gary C. Peters (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.7
Final polls said
D+7.4
31 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | D+1.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Citizen Data | D+3.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+5.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.2 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | Morning Consult | D+5.7 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+5.9 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | Ipsos | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 17 | Swayable | D+7.2 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 19 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 20 | National Research | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 21 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 22 | RMG Research | D+9.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 23 | Glengariff Group | D+9.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 24 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 25 | Targoz Market Research | D+11.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 26 | Gravis Marketing | D+11.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 27 | SSRS | D+12.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 28 | Kiaer Research | D+12.8 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 29 | Research Co. | D+15.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 30 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+16.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
58 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Research Co.2020-10-3113
Emerson College2020-10-304
Public Policy Polling2020-10-298
Mitchell Research & Communications2020-10-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Michigan Senate race?
Gary C. Peters (D) won, by about 1.7 points (D+1.7).
When was the 2020 Michigan Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.