Actual result
D+1.7
Final polls said
D+7.4
31 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | D+1.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Citizen Data | D+3.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+5.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.2 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | Morning Consult | D+5.7 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+5.9 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | Ipsos | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 17 | Swayable | D+7.2 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 19 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 20 | National Research | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 21 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+8.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 22 | VotePredictor | D+8.3 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 23 | RMG Research | D+9.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 24 | Glengariff Group | D+9.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 25 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 26 | Targoz Market Research | D+11.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 27 | Gravis Marketing | D+11.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 28 | SSRS | D+12.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 29 | Kiaer Research | D+12.8 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 30 | Research Co. | D+15.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 31 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+16.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (58)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 383 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+15.0 | 13 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 700 | D+5.8 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-29 | 745 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2020-10-29 | 817 | D+5.4 | 4 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 393 | D+7.2 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-29 | 654 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-28 | 800 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2020-10-27 | 993 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 907 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2020-10-27 | 600 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1736 | D+5.7 | 4 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2020-10-26 | 759 | D+9.6 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-25 | 856 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Kiaer Research | 2020-10-25 | 669 | D+12.8 | 11 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 365 | D+16.8 | 15 |
| Tarrance Group | 2020-10-25 | 679 | D+1.3 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-24 | 679 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Glengariff Group | 2020-10-24 | 600 | D+9.6 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-23 | 652 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-10-22 | 789 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-21 | 804 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | D+3.5 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-10-19 | 1032 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 718 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2020-10-18 | 900 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-17 | 1034 | R+2.2 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-17 | 830 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2020-10-17 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-17 | 686 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1717 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-14 | 1289 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-13 | 1018 | R+1.4 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-10 | 620 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2020-10-10 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-08 | 1181 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-08 | 614 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-06 | 716 | D+9.6 | 8 |
| National Research | 2020-10-05 | 800 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2020-10-04 | 1134 | D+5.9 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2020-10-04 | 601 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 676 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-03 | 709 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Glengariff Group | 2020-10-02 | 600 | D+5.4 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-30 | 746 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-09-27 | 1042 | D+1.4 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-09-24 | 1047 | R+0.1 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2020-09-21 | 799 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 568 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-18 | 400 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 455 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2020-09-16 | 600 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2020-09-15 | 1001 | D+4.2 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 1376 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-13 | 930 | D+16.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-13 | 637 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2020-09-12 | 600 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 876 | D+4.0 | 2 |