Actual result
D+5.2
Final polls said
D+9.4
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Swayable | D+9.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Targoz Market Research | D+9.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+9.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Data for Progress | D+10.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | D+10.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Research Co. | D+11.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Civiqs | D+11.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Gravis Marketing | D+14.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+15.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | St. Cloud State University | D+17.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1259 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-29 | 770 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 430 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2020-10-27 | 1138 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-25 | 657 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 649 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2020-10-20 | 372 | D+17.0 | 12 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-19 | 840 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-18 | 625 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-14 | 1021 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-03 | 929 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-22 | 500 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2020-09-22 | 800 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 718 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-10 | 1031 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-09 | 814 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-06 | 553 | D+10.9 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-03 | 877 | D+8.0 | 3 |