Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Minnesota Senate

In the 2020 Minnesota Senate race, Tina Smith (D) won by about 5 points.

Tina Smith· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+5.2

Final polls said

D+9.4

10 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Change Research	D+4.0	1.2	✓
2	YouGov	D+7.0	1.8	✓
3	SurveyUSA	D+3.0	2.2	✓
4	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+8.0	2.8	✓
5	Public Policy Polling	D+9.0	3.8	✓
6	Swayable	D+9.0	3.8	✓
7	Targoz Market Research	D+9.0	3.8	✓
8	The New York Times/Siena College	D+9.0	3.8	✓
9	Data for Progress	D+10.0	4.8	✓
10	Suffolk University	D+10.0	4.8	✓
11	Research Co.	D+11.0	5.8	✓
12	Civiqs	D+11.0	5.8	✓
13	Gravis Marketing	D+14.0	8.8	✓
14	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+15.0	9.8	✓
15	St. Cloud State University	D+17.0	11.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
8	Race to the WH	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
9	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—