Actual result
D+16.3
Final polls said
D+25.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+23.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | D+22.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+23.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+23.4 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+24.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+25.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+30.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 363 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2020-10-21 | 872 | D+30.0 | 14 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2020-10-10 | 721 | D+25.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-06 | 500 | D+24.0 | 8 |