Toss-up · 2020 Senate

New Jersey Senate

In the 2020 New Jersey Senate race, Cory A. Booker (D) won by about 16 points.

Cory A. Booker· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+16.3

Final polls said

D+25.0

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Swayable	D+22.0	5.7	✓
2	Research Co.	D+23.0	6.7	✓
3	Emerson College	D+24.0	7.7	✓
4	Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy	D+25.0	8.7	✓
5	Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling	D+30.0	13.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
9	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
10	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓